Gold fell to $4,290 on Thursday as a surging US bond yield pulled money out of bullion while rising crude prices fed the inflation fears that usually support it. The metal now sits below its 50-day moving average with momentum fading on both charts and fund flows.
The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.11% on Thursday morning and later reached 5.2%, its highest since 2007, as traders priced in more Federal Reserve tightening with hike odds above 80%, Invezz reported. Money kept leaving gold funds, with the SPDR Gold ETF shedding about $230 million. A day earlier, gold closed at $4,339.90, down 0.83%, according to Schwab.
Related reading: yen past 157 as the BOJ hike splits the board; oil below $100 as US-Iran talks ease supply fears.
The levels traders are watching
Bears are aiming at $4,200, where an ascending trendline running since June 30 should offer support. A daily close above $4,390 would end the bearish case and point back toward the highs.
Desk levels from RoboForex put first support at $4,235, then $4,168 and $4,040. First resistance stands at $4,367. A break there opens $4,425 and $4,554, with $4,698 the key medium-term ceiling.
Yields up, crude up: gold caught in the middle
Gold usually gains when oil rallies on supply fears. Brent jumped to $102.50 and WTI to $92 overnight. But the yield shock is winning the tug of war for now, lifting the dollar and raising the cost of holding metal that pays nothing.
The pressure traces back to September 16, when the Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75% to 4% in a unanimous vote, its first hike since 2023, the New York Times reported. Chair Kevin Warsh blamed dearer borrowing on strong growth, heavy tech borrowing for AI, and dearer oil from the Iran war.
What it means for Malaysian traders
At $4,290 and a ringgit near 4.09 per dollar, one ounce costs about RM17,550, so local buyers feel both the metal and the currency. Bank Negara has held its overnight policy rate at 2.75%, the Star reported, leaving the rate gap with the US wide and the dollar bid.
For CFD desks in Kuala Lumpur, the trade is binary into the weekend: $4,235 must hold for dip buyers, while a slip toward $4,200 tests the June trendline that has defined the whole second half.
What to watch next
- The $4,200 trendline: first serious support test since the summer rally
- A $4,390 reclaim: ends the bearish setup and reopens $4,554
- Friday yields and crude: either leg can decide gold's weekly close
- Fed speakers: any pushback on hike bets would sink yields and lift metal fast